Overview

The charts below show projected hospital resource use for COVID-19 patients in the Ottawa area.

This page is private and provisional. Do not circulate. See the bottom of page for contacts and further details.

Key model paramters

  1. Projections are based on reported daily hospital Ottawa census.
    • Daily hospital use reported by Ottawa Public Health as of March 29, 2020.
    • Ottawa COVID-19 bed census = 21 patients on March 29, 2020.
    • Doubling time 3 days from March 20 to 29, 2020. Projections initialized with 4 day hospital doubling time.
  2. Scenarios based on effective physical distancing. Effectiveness of preventive measures is the most influential parameter for all model platforms and projections - and hence the most important source of projection uncertainty.
    • Scenarios reflect the potential reduction in people’s contact in the community.
    • Physical distancing reduces hospital doubling time from 4 days (current) to:
      • 12.1 days with 50% physical distancing
      • 21.5 days with 60% physical distancing
      • 103 days with 70% physical distancing
  3. Projections are based on the CHIME model v1.1.0 developed by the University of Pennsylvania Health System. The projections can be updated for other models.
  4. Model parameters other than Ottawa hospital use are aligned with COVID-19-MC and Tuite et al. models where possible, with updates based on Verity et al. Model parameters are here.

Hospitalization projections

ICU Projections

Ventilator projections

Data & input parameters

Below are tables illustrating the inputted parameters and data obtained to generate the projection charts

Contact

Created at the Ottawa Hospital with input from Ottawa Public Health.

Contacts:

Doug Manuel dmanuel@ohri.ca

Warsame Yusuf waryusuf@ohri.ca

Alan Forster

Changelog

V0.1.0

2020-04-01

Initial projections based on Ottawa hospital census data to 2020-03-29.

Key parameters:

  • Census (acute and ICU) = 21 patients
  • Hospital bed doubling time = 4 days
  • Model Projections are based on the CHIME model v1.1.0

Roadmap