Overview
The charts below show projected hospital resource use for COVID-19 patients in the Ottawa area.
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Key model paramters
- Projections are based on reported daily hospital Ottawa census.
- Daily hospital use reported by Ottawa Public Health as of March 29, 2020.
- Ottawa COVID-19 bed census = 21 patients on March 29, 2020.
- Doubling time 3 days from March 20 to 29, 2020. Projections initialized with 4 day hospital doubling time.
- Scenarios based on effective physical distancing. Effectiveness of preventive measures is the most influential parameter for all model platforms and projections - and hence the most important source of projection uncertainty.
- Scenarios reflect the potential reduction in people’s contact in the community.
- Physical distancing reduces hospital doubling time from 4 days (current) to:
- 12.1 days with 50% physical distancing
- 21.5 days with 60% physical distancing
- 103 days with 70% physical distancing
- Projections are based on the CHIME model v1.1.0 developed by the University of Pennsylvania Health System. The projections can be updated for other models.
- Model parameters other than Ottawa hospital use are aligned with COVID-19-MC and Tuite et al. models where possible, with updates based on Verity et al. Model parameters are here.
Hospitalization projections
Data & input parameters
Below are tables illustrating the inputted parameters and data obtained to generate the projection charts
Changelog
V0.1.0
2020-04-01
Initial projections based on Ottawa hospital census data to 2020-03-29.
Key parameters:
- Census (acute and ICU) = 21 patients
- Hospital bed doubling time = 4 days
- Model Projections are based on the CHIME model v1.1.0
Roadmap
- The main purpose to visualize Ottawa-based projections for models performed by other teams.
- Suggestions welcomed.